The Economic Impact of an Aging WorldDuring the week of June 10, 2024, 法国极右翼政党全国集会党（National Rally party）在欧盟（eu）选举中表现强劲后，政府债券遭到抛售，震动了法国市场. 民意调查显示，国民集会党可能在即将举行的法国议会选举中赢得多数席位, 投资者担心一项承诺的社会支出计划——包括将最低退休年龄从64岁降至60岁——会进一步拖累已经陷入困境的法国经济.1 By contrast, when France raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 in 2023, aiming to strengthen the economy, workers took to the streets in protest.2
法国关于退休年龄的冲突反映了整个发达世界的一个基本的社会和经济问题. Put simply, the world population is getting older, 这意味着人口中能够推动经济发展、支持养老金和医疗保健计划的工人比例正在逐渐减少.
The U.S. Social Security program is a prime example. In 1960, there were 5.1 workers paying into the program for each beneficiary. In 2024, there are 2.7, projected to drop to 2.3 by 2040. Because of this demographic shift, 社会保障不再自付，部分由信托基金储备支撑，而信托基金储备是在每个受益人拥有更多工人时建立起来的. The reserves are projected to run out in 2033, 到那时，除非国会采取行动增加资金，否则项目收入只能覆盖计划福利的79%.3
Medicare faces a similar challenge. The Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund reserves, 帮助支付医疗保险A部分住院和医院护理福利, are projected to be depleted in 2036, 到那时，工资税和其他收入只能支付成本的89%. B部分医疗福利和D部分处方药保险通过保费和联邦政府普通基金的收入自动平衡, 但除非经济增长超过支出，否则它们将需要在联邦预算中占据越来越大的份额.4
Longer lives, fewer children
人口老龄化是由两种人口趋势推动的：人们的寿命更长，生育的孩子更少. One in six people in the world will be age 65 or older by 2050.5 The United States is already at that level, with more than 17% of the population age 65 or older in 2022, projected to reach almost 23% by 2050.6 Many other developed nations are even older. In 2022, 美国的中位年龄是38岁，即一半人口年龄大于一半人口年龄小于一半人口的年龄.9, the highest on record.7 In 2021 (most recent data), it was 48.4 in Japan, 46.8 in Italy, 44.9 in Germany, and 41.6 in France.8
全世界的生育率——每个妇女平均生育的孩子数量——都在下降, due to a variety of factors including education, access to birth control, employment opportunities, and lifestyle choices. In the developed world, a fertility rate of about 2.1被认为是一国人口保持稳定的更替率. (It is slightly higher in developing nations with higher mortality.) Most developed countries have been below replacement since the 1970s, so they have depended on immigration to maintain or grow population.9 The U.S. fertility rate was 1.62 in 2023.10 Although fertility is higher in developing countries, it is dropping. Based on preliminary data, 一项学术研究表明，全球生育率可能在人类历史上首次接近或低于更替.11
Global Pension Spending
许多发达经济体将国内生产总值（GDP）的很大一部分用于政府在老年人和遗属福利方面的支出——随着人口持续老龄化，这一比例可能还会上升.
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2023 (2019 data, includes non-cash benefits)
Challenges and solutions
在人口老龄化项目上的支出已经使世界各地的经济紧张起来, 随着人口持续老龄化，经济压力将会增加. The burden is not only the cost of the programs, 但劳动力占总人口的比例较小，也可能导致生产和税收下降. This is likely to drive up government debt, and increased government borrowing, along with competition for a smaller pool of workers, may lead to higher inflation.12
So far, 政府鼓励夫妇生育更多孩子的计划并没有产生显著影响, 而且，生育率与儿童保育和住房成本之间没有明显的关联, student debt, employment, religious beliefs, or local laws governing contraception and abortion. 这表明，少生孩子的决定在基本的生活方式选择中更加根深蒂固. For developed countries, immigration may continue to provide a larger workforce, 但最近移民到发达国家的往往是非技术工人.13
社会保障（Social Security）等政府养老金计划的资金缺口可以通过提高退休年龄这一组合解决，这些解决方案在政治上可能不受欢迎，但不太可能破坏更广泛的经济, increased payroll taxes, and means testing for wealthier beneficiaries.14 The larger question is how to keep growing the global economy. 这可能需要在新技术的推动下提高工人的生产率，并使老年工人更多地融入劳动力队伍.
U.S. worker productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.2024年第一季度增长9%，远高于二战结束以来的年平均水平. If this trend continues, 它可以帮助平衡一些因老年人退出劳动力市场而导致的生产力损失. 美国人的工作时间已经更长了——到2024年，65岁及以上的人中约有五分之一有工作, almost double the number in 1985.15 长期的解决方案可能需要重新思考传统的职业模式, 有更多终身学习和晚年职业发展的机会. 研究表明，延长工作时间可能有助于防止认知能力下降, 但它也有助于平衡全球老龄化对宏观经济的影响.16
预测是基于当前情况，可能会发生变化，也可能不会实现.